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"Walking Pneumonia" Contraction Ahead: The Information Missing from the BEA Q1 GDP Report
Instead of a "call-911" type of event in 2008 or the "hiccup" witnessed in 2006, we may be seeing a "walking pneumonia" type of contraction that has legs.
US GDP; double dip; BEA May 6th,2010
Housing Market: China's Own "Too Big to Fail"
For the speculator or investor, real property in China has become virtually risk free. For a home buyer, the story is less happy. The later one enters the market, the deeper the financial waters to tread. Little wonder that people are in such an irrational (or rational!) hurry to put their money into the housing market.
house bubble;house market April 14th,2010
Too-Rapid Q1 Growth Makes the Case for Interest Rate Hike, Yuan Appreciation
Once the tone has been set that the economy is at risk of overheating, decision makers will be seriously considering interest rate hikes, or yuan appreciation, or both.
overheating;appreciation;rate hike April 12nd,2010
Labor Shortage and Higher Expenses Drive More Factories Inland China
Escalating production costs in China's coastal manufacturing hubs are pushing some suppliers to relocate to the central and western provinces.
labor shortage April 11st,2010
How Victor Shih Get China's Debt So Wrong
He has greatly exaggerated both the size and increase of debt of local governments in the coming two years, but he has neglected other sources of government debt: other local debts, including from the education system and town and village governments; 1.15 trillion yuan in "other assets" on the balance sheet of central bank, namely sour notes issued by the four asset management companies (set up a decade ago to strip bad loans from the four state owned commercial banks); and liabilities of the social security system.
China debt;financing platform;Victor Shih March 25th,2010
De-leverage, Re-leverage, Greek Debt Crisis, and China's House Bubble
The serious imbalance of fiscal authority between the central and local governments, and the lacking of local governments of the right to issue debt, has forced local governments into the high-leverage game and expanding real estate bubbles through excessive housing price manipulation, the so called "land management", and large-scale bank borrowing.
de-leverage;government debt;house bubble March 20th,2010
Lies, Damned Lies, and Chinese Statistics
The process of estimating China's GDP bears on social stability and even the political future of local leaders, and is inevitably subject to political influence.
statistics;China economy March 7th,2010
Distorted Housing Price Statistics Stir Anger over Policy
China's economic and business statistics have been notoriously inconsistent, unreliable,and often and apparently manipulated. Now it seems that the statistics concerning housing prices are no exception.
statistics;house market March 5th,2010
The Vanishing Chinese Migrant Worker
The first generation of migrant workers is returning home to care for elderly parents and for their own retirement life, while the second generation of young migrant workers is increasingly inclined to seek employment locally, where new development is now providing growing employment opportunities.
migrant worker;labor shortage;hukou March 1st,2010
China's New Year of the Tiger Looks to Be One of Trade Conflict with the US
China's imports and exports, imports in particular, are expected to show sharp recovery growth in the first quarter. Exports and imports are expected to increase by about 16% and 32%, respectively, over the same period last year, and China's trade surplus is expected reach around $43 billion, down around 31%.
trade war;RMB;trade surplus; February 10th,2010
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