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The Eurozone's Breakup Still Significantly Possible
At worst (and with a probability of more than one-third), the eurozone will break up, owing to a combination of sovereign debt restructurings and exits by some weaker economies.
eurozone;sovereign debt;breakup September 18th,2010
China Overtakes Japan: Hegemon Is a Thankless Task
The real challenge for China's leaders will be to develop a coherent view of the world that does not scare the people just across the border.
China GDP;Japan;Great Depression September 8th,2010
China Economy and Market :Morgan Stanley Eyes 10 Risks
We are as humbled by the cruelty of short-run unpredictable events as we are emboldened by our strong conviction in a long-run secular story.
NPL;Hard Landing;Property Tax;Default September 5th,2010
China's Economy at the Most Critical Point
China is transiting into a very difficult period as focus shifts towards sustainable domestic growth and away from short-term measures to defend the 8% GDP mantra.
housing bubble;government debt;wage hike August 13rd,2010
Marriage Counseling for the G-20 and the IMF
Like a long-married couple who habitually bicker and fight, the two can't seem to live together – but they can't live apart, either.
IMF,G20 August 11st,2010
Chinese Leaders Hint Economic Policy Softening
"there is visible softening in policy tone as we have predicted, and the emphasis is placed on 'maintaining policy stability' as the policy theme going forward."
economic softening,double dip July 22nd,2010
China's Growth Revised down and Policy Growth-Supportive
In light of moderation in growth and receding inflationary pressures, we believe the policy cycle has troughed and will likely turn growth-supportive by 4Q10.
slowdown,soft landing July 19th,2010
Double-Dip Days
So, as the optimists' delusional hopes for a rapid V-shaped recovery evaporate, the advanced world will be at best in a long U-shaped recovery, which in some cases – the eurozone and Japan – may be long enough to stretch into an L-shaped near-depression. Avoiding double dip recession will be difficult.
slowdown, double dip July 18th,2010
China's Slowdown, U/ L Shaped Recovery, and Roubini's "Double Dip Days"
A scenario in which US growth slumps to 1.5%, the eurozone and Japan stagnate, and China's growth slows below 8% may not imply a global contraction, but, as in the US, it will feel like one. And any additional shock could tip this unstable global economy back into full-fledged recession
slowdown,double dip, July 18th,2010
Fiscal Fibs and Follies
Across the globe, the debate over fiscal consolidation has the distinct sound of two sides talking past one another.
soverign debt, government debt July 15th,2010
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