market is whispering two versions of YoY Feb CPI inflation: 3.9% and 4.4%.
Comments: (1) We think 4.4% is more believable, though 3.9% is also possible;
(2) We expect headline CPI inflation to rebound to around 5% in March, so be
cautious from mid-March after being optimistic; (3) If 3.9% is true, most
forecasters might need to change forecasts; (4) Despite doubts on CPI data
quality, we believe some inflation risks were exaggerated anyway; (5) China's
inflation is to some extent driven by labor costs, so policy tightening won't
be too draconian to greatly slow growth