Most proposals submitted by various democratic parties are about employment stimulus and financial opening. The No. 1 proposal this year, submitted by the China Zhi Gong Party, deals with improving employment. The proposal’s position is that the government should be cautious in promoting employment through economic stimulation, for according to other countries�experiences, government stimulated economic growth may not lead to a higher employment ratio. The Zhi Gong Party suggests the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other relevant departments pay attention to the overall layout of technical upgrading of all industries and address relations among labor-intensive, capital-intensive, and technology-intensive industries in the process to stimulate domestic economic development.
A number of entrepreneurs also have employment worries. Zhang Jindong, chairman of Sunning, China’s second largest electric appliance retailer, is speaking of his concerns over college students�employment problems, rather than selling more appliances.
Earlier, a report by Standard Chartered Chief China Economist Stephen Green was widely discussed. In it, he said some officials had indicated "they wouldn’t rule out the possibility of launching a new economic stimulus plan involving 8 trillion to 10 trillion yuan in the coming one or two years."
Wang wouldn’t reveal his source for this news, only saying it would greatly boost people’s confidence if the figure was officially confirmed.
Wang says in the report that if local governments are able to raise funds efficiently and the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance are generous in approving local projects, the earlier 4 trillion yuan package may be expanded to 5-6 trillion yuan.
Zheng Xinli, deputy director of Central Policy Research Office, recently said at a Transnational Corporations China Forum 2009 that if the economy didn’t touch bottom in the first quarter, the government would increase its investment and expend more effort to expand internal demand.
Although some economic indicators have been improving since last month, the global financial crisis certainly hasn’t bottomed out yet.
Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Wang Qing believes China’s month-on-month economic growth in 2009 may follow a W-shaped line, and that the real rebound may emerge in the second half of the year.
Standard Charter’s Stephen Green said that the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan may begin to work in the second quarter of 2009, and that a transitional point couldn’t be expected in the first two months. Steel and coal inventories are growing. Although power generation is beginning to increase, this along means little to the overall economy.
Li Yining, a professor at Peking University, predicted that the Chinese economy would touch the bottom in the first quarter of 2009, and that the global financial crisis would also see its lowest point this year. But he also said he couldn’t judge whether it was a good chance for China to acquire overseas mining resources, nor could he judge the trend of China’s stock market. Li Yining is a senior economist in China, and was the PHD instructor of Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
The Chinese government is planning to allow local governments to issue bonds in order to raise money for the 4 trillion yuan plan. Local governments are Now submitting proposals for a total amount expected to exceed 200 billion yuan.