The assassination of Benazir Bhutto shocked the world. For years it is clear that Pakistan has been turbulent. But the death of Ms. Bhutto tells how brutal and bloody the domestic politics of Pakistan have been conducted.
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Ms. Bhutto was expelled for political reasons a few years ago. As the former Prime Minister, she enjoyed the support of the main political party of the country �Pakistani People’s Party. She returned from abroad to challenge the incumbent President, with a mission to restore democracy in her country. However, it turned out that her mission has boded ill.
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There has been no tradition of democracy in Pakistan ever since this relatively new state came into being. In the entire history of this Islamic Republic, leadership in uniform has been in charge of power. Despite its constitution, Pakistan has had a pattern of tripartite sharing of power amongst the President, Prime Minister as well as the Army Chief.
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The seizing of power by President Musharraf has not been what the U.S. cherishes, for it was his de facto coup d’état that unseated the then Prime Minister Sharif who was elected by the people. Were it not for China’s persuasion, President Clinton would not even have paid a short visit to Pakistan in 2000.
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The "911" terrorist attack reverted this picture. For pressing security concerns, Washington badly needed Pakistan to counter the al Qaeda based in Afghanistan, and Pakistan made its choice to follow America. In return, the US offered Pakistan the status of non-NATO ally and promised $3billions as aid, plus the releasing of F16 jets that had been held for long time. Overnight, President Musharraf became a strategic ally of America while he was still in uniform, undercutting the US interests to bring power to the civilian.
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Despite Musharrf’s cooperation, the allied forces in Afghanistan have not been able to bring Osama bin Laden to justice. Actually the Taliban has enjoyed the sympathy of some Pakistanis, along the border area with Pakistan and likely inside the government in Islamabad. President Musharraf, as a soldier, has been checked by this challenge and his country keeps volatile.
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The return of Ms. Bhutto provided a new opportunity to check and balance the President’s power. A pro-America and pro-democracy Bhutto is in America’s interest, and allows America more choices. But in the short run, America still bets Musharraf for his strong leadership despite his needs to be monitored. As Musharraf still depends upon America, he had to permit Bhutto’s return while understanding that this new challenge could be kept under control.
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Unfortunately, Ms. Bhutto has underestimated her risk. She is certainly not welcome by her President, or by the domestic anti-Americanism, or by the extremists or the so-called terrorists who consider her too pro-America. She could exert pressures on the President, but could not save her country. She could add the value of check and balance to Pakistan, but has not been strategically valuable enough to replace Musharraf. Nevertheless, as the war on terror is a controversial topic, Ms. Bhutto, as an America-backed icon, was destined to outrage those opponents of America in Pakistan.
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The death of Ms. Bhutto is therefore a truly political tragedy. Before realizing her ambition to improve her country by challenging a military strongman, she simply could not be tolerated by her enemy. One would deplore the politics in Pakistan, or to put less bluntly, to blame the volatility of Pakistan that has been meddled by too many international forces, whether American or al Qaeda.
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The Bhutto family seems destined for tragedy. Some twenty years ago, Benazir’s father, Zulfikar Ali, was executed on the excuse of political murder. Then, the rise of Benazir has carried on the honor of Bhutto and brought power to civilian control again. A political Benazir seemed bound to an ill fate in a religiously-based and military-traditional society.
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Whence goes Islamabad? No prophets in this world can foretell. On the one hand, Pakistan could grow more violently, as the assassination could motivate an action-and-reaction wave of revenge. On the other, however, as Benazir’s return has catalyzed the confrontation in her country, her sad death could also discourage domestic polarizing, at least after a while.
And how will the war on terror unfold? Though America has much enhanced its homeland security since the strike of "911", the extremism- and terrorism-based counterforce has not ended its unleashing of destructiveness. In this regard, the converging of world civilizations is far from being attained by the anti-terror war, let along their reconciliation.